{"id":2037,"date":"2025-10-21T17:39:27","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T21:39:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/garandgestionprivee.ca\/third-quarter-2023-markets-pause-high-interest-rates-and-cautious-forecasts\/"},"modified":"2026-04-03T10:34:51","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T14:34:51","slug":"third-quarter-2023-markets-pause-high-interest-rates-and-cautious-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/garandgestionprivee.ca\/en\/third-quarter-2023-markets-pause-high-interest-rates-and-cautious-forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"Third quarter 2023: Markets pause, high interest rates and cautious forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"
For the first time this year, the majority of major stock market indices, whether in equities or bonds, ended Q3 2023 in negative territory. However, they remain positive since the beginning of the year.<\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n

Several factors influence these results. As I mentioned in my commentary for the second quarter of 2023 (see here<\/a>), markets have had a strong first half of the year despite the rather negative predictions of the various “strategists” of major institutions globally towards the end of 2022. Nevertheless, I suggested that we remain cautious given all the uncertainty that was (and still is) in the global economy. The markets were very optimistic, perhaps too optimistic, about the news they received and the last few months have served to bring them back down to earth in a way.<\/p>\n

Secondly, there is also a certain seasonality effect on the stock markets. When we look back over the years, the American stock market, represented by the S&P 500 (the index of the 500 largest companies in the United States), often experiences a slump during the month of September. There is no real specific factor that defines why this is the case, but when you look back at more than 70 years of history, you realize that, on average, September delivered negative returns. There are several theories on the subject; among other things, we think of a mix between the return to work after the holidays, the start of school, tax transactions before the end of the quarter or even the fact that people try to anticipate the “September Effect” as reasons that could explain this seasonality. Now, why not just sell your investments before September and reinvest in October? It seems like a simple idea; But when we look at the figures, as there is nothing specific to explain this negative average, we also realise that some months of September gave very good yields.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: LPL Research<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
<\/div>\n

Now, after such a good start to the year, it is not abnormal to see a decline as we have just experienced in the3rd<\/sup> quarter. Historically, in a normal calendar year, the S&P 500 experiences an average decline of 14.3% within the year. This has not prevented the index from giving a positive return in 32 of the last 43 years with an average return of 8.7%\/year over the same period. So far this year, the S&P 500’s maximum decline has been around -8% and the index remains positive year-to-date.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Source: J.P. Morgan Guide to the markets<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
<\/div>\n

Interest rates<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Interest rates have continued to occupy a lot of space in conversations over the past two years and the last few months have been no exception once again. Inflation numbers continue to be closely monitored each month and central banks are trying to assess the impacts their aggressive rate hikes will have on their respective economies. As we know, interest rate hikes take time to be fully reflected in the economy. Their impacts can be felt more or less quickly depending on the economy; For example, the Canadian economy is much more sensitive to interest rate hikes than the U.S. economy. There are several things that can explain this different sensitivity, but one of the main points is real estate, which is about double the size of our total economy in Canada compared to the United States. The structure of mortgages is also very different with our revolving mortgages in Canada compared to the vast majority of mortgages issued in the U.S. that are fixed rate for 30 years. In fact, we are seeing much more signs of the impact of rate hikes on the Canadian economy than on the U.S. economy so far. It’s hard to say where rates will go from here, but markets seem to be increasingly accepting the fact that interest rates will stay higher, longer to fight inflation.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Alarmist forecasts<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

I will conclude by talking about a subject that touches many people in connection with the alarmist forecasts that are constantly published in the media, because they are the ones that attract the greatest interest. Many “strategists” or “forecasters” have made their careers by predicting an imminent “crash”, a recession, etc.; But it’s also interesting that often, these people predict a disaster or an “economic apocalypse” almost every year. They will inevitably end up being right, even if it takes years. If every day I predict that it will rain tomorrow, I can guarantee you that I will end up being right. Peter Lynch, who is widely regarded as one of the most prolific investors of all time, once said (rightly): “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate stock market corrections than lost in the corrections themselves.” <\/em>There will always be reasons not to invest, just as there always have been; And yet, financial markets have continued to advance despite everything.<\/p>\n

For the next few months, inflation and interest rates will remain under the microscope. We are currently entering a new season of company financial results that should tell us more about the health of companies and the real impacts of all the new economic data on them.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Do not hesitate if you have any questions or would like to discuss them further.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After a strong start to the year, markets declined in Q3 2023. Inflation, interest rates and investor caution remain at the heart of the discussions. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-classe"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThird quarter 2023: Markets pause, high interest rates and cautious forecasts - Garand Gestion Priv\u00e9e<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/garandgestionprivee.ca\/en\/third-quarter-2023-markets-pause-high-interest-rates-and-cautious-forecasts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Third quarter 2023: Markets pause, high interest rates and cautious forecasts - Garand Gestion Priv\u00e9e\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After a strong start to the year, markets declined in Q3 2023. 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